The current plans of Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Katherina Reiche (CDU) regarding feed-in tariffs are jeopardizing the continued expansion of solar energy in Germany. This is the conclusion of a recent study conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute.
Important Share of the Electricity Mix
The Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) examined the importance of small rooftop photovoltaic systems with a capacity of up to 30 kilowatt-peak (kWp) for the energy transition and assessed the potential impacts of planned changes to subsidy schemes. These systems contribute more than one third of the total amount of solar electricity fed into Germany’s power grid.
The analysis is based on political considerations to abolish the fixed feed-in tariff for small systems and replace it with mandatory direct marketing. According to the researchers, such a move could significantly slow down investments in private solar installations unless the direct marketing processes are substantially simplified.
Calculations in the study show that operators would need to achieve an approximately 15 percent higher self-consumption rate to reach economic results comparable to those under the current feed-in tariff scheme. This could lead to systems being designed on a smaller scale or to available rooftop areas remaining unused.
A key problem identified by the authors in the Ministry of Economic Affairs’ plans is the organizational burden involved. Many direct marketing processes are currently insufficiently standardized. Necessary prerequisites include, among other things, a faster rollout of smart metering systems and a uniform electronic data exchange across the energy sector.
Questionable Framework Conditions
At the same time, the study highlights the previous role of small rooftop systems in the expansion of renewable energy. Newly installed capacity amounted to around eight gigawatt-peak in 2023, while approximately five gigawatt-peak were added in 2025. Small-scale systems therefore made a significant contribution to achieving expansion targets.
The study was commissioned by Elektrizitätswerke Schönau. Representatives of the company warn of negative consequences resulting from a rapid abolition of EEG feed-in remuneration. The authors from Fraunhofer ISE themselves primarily emphasize the need for clear and reliable framework conditions to ensure that small rooftop PV systems can continue to make a stable contribution to the energy transition.
To what extent these aspects are taken into account in Reiche’s plans remains unclear. Critics, however, already fear the worst. After all, Reiche was already closely involved in the 2012 amendment of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) as Parliamentary State Secretary — a reform that led to the collapse of Germany’s once-thriving solar industry and the loss of tens of thousands of jobs in the sector.
Summary
- Plans to abolish feed-in tariffs threaten solar expansion
- Fraunhofer study warns of a slowdown in small rooftop PV deployment
- Direct marketing would require a 15% higher self-consumption rate
- Lack of standardization and insufficient smart meter rollout hinder the transition
- Small rooftop systems are crucial for meeting expansion targets
- Reiche was involved in the controversial 2012 photovoltaic reform
